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Big Selloff in US Session
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) sentiment turned dramatically negative overnight with stocks in the US falling the most in 3 months as European concerns and QE3 enthusiasm faded. FED Member Plosser was highly critical of the QE3 announced by the FOMC and stated he didn’t think it would lower long term interest rates and risked making the FED look ineffective. Looking ahead, Weekly Crude Oil Inventories forecast at 1.7mil vs. 8.5mil previously.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD rallied in Europe as sentiment in Germany picked up according to the latest GFK. The market reversed sharply though on comments from ECB Asmussen on no more refinancing for Greece. Also hurting was reports that Spanish strikes had turned violent. A break of 1.2900 targets final large support at 1.2855 with little support below that figure. The Sterling (GBP) GBP/USD was up and down with the rest of the market reaching 1.6260 twice before reversing to close below 1.6200 and a weak day of trade technically. The outlook for a larger pullback towards 1.6000 is very possible with market wide weakness. Looking ahead, German CPI forecast at 0.0% vs. 0.4% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY’s time below Y78 continued with a small rally up to Y77.90 being reversed back to Y77.70. The big selling pressure and hence Yen strength is seen on the EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY both of which dropped to new levels overnight. EUR/JPY found support just above Y100. Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD bounced to 1.0460 before the sellers took commodity currency lower to fresh week lows under 1.0400. The longer term outlook is for losses if the RBA cuts rates next Tuesday. Looking ahead, no economic data.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold rallied to 70 before reversing back to support at 60 and technically negative trade. OIL/USD is under pressure tracking US stocks lower to below and in striking distance of the key a barrel.
Pairs to watch
EUR/JPY to test Y100 today?
AUD/USD broken to downside Sell on rallies?
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2808 1.2826 1.2895 1.3000 1.3059
USD/JPY 77.13 77.46 77.75 78.23 78.85
GBP/USD 1.6065 1.6181 1.6195 1.6310 1.6335
AUD/USD 1.0315 1.0337 1.0360 1.0425 1.0490
XAU/USD 1724.00 1745 1760 1785 1810
OIL/USD 89.00
 
90.00 90.90 91.50 93.00

8.10.12 04:40

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